The ViewPoint - Year in Review
October 12, 2004
Written by MadAlan

Before May, 2004 rolled around ViewPoint discussed 188 players who would exhibit enough stay-ability to make their mark in the Majors in 2004. Of the 188 players ViewPoint was correct with 142 and wrong on just 46.

On March 06
This is going to be a grand season for these young outfielders:

Kerry Robinson - Sfg
Ryan Ludwick Cle
Jason Bay - Pit
Ramon Nivar - Tex
Mike Cuddyer - Min
Jason Lane - Hou
And Len Ford – Min

On 04/04
Jody Gerut led the team in home runs with 22 last season. This year expect about the same.

Casey Blake hit 17 home runs and is capable of hitting 25 as he continues to mature.

Ben Broussard is the type hitter, give him 500 at-bats and reap 30-35 home runs.

Milton Bradley gets on base and scores the runs the Bashers knock-in. A “natural hitter” possibly a .300 hitter for the next 10 years.

Alex Escobar is a natural hitter, quick stroke with quick wrists. Could hit over .300 plus 15 homers and 25 stolen bases given 450 at-bats.

Matt Lawton is a leadoff hitter with 15 homers potential each year.

Travis Hafner is the type hitter, give him 500 at-bats and reap 30-35 home runs.

Ryan Ludwick is the type hitter, give him 500 at-bats and reap 30-35 home runs.

Coco Crisp is a crash and run exciting player that disrupts opponent pitchers and steals bases. Crisp would hit .280 and score 85-100 runs dependent upon his location in the batting order.

Westbrook is a young Jamie Moyer clone in progress. In his 3 seasons he has improved each year and is in-line to be in the rotation as a different look than the power-pitchers.

Betancourt was told by the Cleveland management and pitching coach Hershiser “don’t change anything!” His first 38 innings produced only 27 hits, 13 walks and 36 strikeouts. If he was put into the rotation he could win 10-13 games but they want to see him as the set-up guy.

Jason Stanford a very smart pitcher at a very young age. He has sound control and an understanding of how to set-up a batter. He can win a dozen or so games.

C.C. Sabathia is only 23 and has already proven to be a top of the rotation pitcher. Last season he won 13 games so to see that expand to 18 is no big shake for him and for the Tribe to really win he would need to win 20 games. Also no big deal for him.

Cliff Lee showed some special qualities last season including less hits than innings pitched – a sign of a really good pitcher. That alone can mean he is the real deal and he can win 12-15 games this season.

On 04/06
Ranger Pitching
Chan Ho Park was never a true ace but more of an ace by attrition. His best year was 2000 when he won 18 games. He is an innings eater when he is going well. It’s been so long it is bound to reoccur. He is a 15 game winner though.

R.A. Dickey by seasons end was no longer giving up 10, 12 14 hits each game and that was his biggest negative. The change was realizing you could tease and work the corners and not attempt to over power everybody. Don’t be surprised when he becomes the staff ace this year.
K. Rogers always wins in double digits and goes deep in games.
C. Lewis will pull it all together this season. He has worked with some of the best pitching coaches around already.
Ricardo Rodriguez
G. Rusch besides helping the kids on how to win, the inside stuff, he will go down fighting. To be honest his arm looks very good this spring.
Callaway, Drese or … one of these two will win 8 games.

Tiger Pitching
Bonderman is the raw-diamond youngster waiting to blossom into a starting pitcher good for at least 7 quality innings. He could win 7 games this year. He could win 12 games this year. He can win 20 games within the next two seasons.

J. Johnson looked un-hittable on Opening Day. A smart, young pitcher. He is the number one here but is really a number 3 starter. Look for 12-15 wins.

Maroth lost 21 games last year and everyone wants him. He was the one Tiger attracting the most attention during the off-season. If he wins 15 games this year I would not be surprised.

Cornejo on the mound means activity for the other eight players. Last year in 32 starts he collected 46 strikeouts. A very good pitcher in progress; should have been in the minors for one more year – last year.

N. Robertson was a highly prized pitcher in the Marlin organization and the Tigers were fortunate to get him. At present he is the fifth starter/long reliever but should work himself up the rotation.

Urbina is on a different team each year but the numbers prove him to be a quality closer and that will save some wins for the starters that were lost last year by the bullpen.

On 04/14
Tiger Hitting
I-Rodriguez will not duplicate last season in one way only this team is not heading to the World Series. Otherwise his numbers will be about the same as last season.

Carlos Pena may not hit .300 but he will hit 25-30 home runs.

R. White is a career .288 hitter; anticipate an average around that, 25 homeruns and 80 R.B.I.s.

D. Young is an occasional outfielder but expect him to DH mostly. He is the most dangerous bat on the team and is loved by everyone. If he hit 35 homeruns this year the Tigers should win about 3-5 more games.

E. Munson may not hit .300 but he will hit 25-30 home runs.

F. Vina plays hard at all times, is a solid team player that will do the little things such as move the runner up in scoring position to win a game. His presence should add some wins to the season.

C. Monroe may not hit .300 but he will hit 25-30 home runs.

A. Sanchez is a sure thing for a .300 batting average, 50 stolen bases and this year he could score 100 runs.

Mariner Pitching
J. Moyer is not likely to win 20 games this year, expect something more like 16. The reason he should falter is the fielding is not the same anymore and he requires that – he does not own a fastball.

J. Pineiro should become the number-one pitcher this season and could win 20 games.

F. Garcia looks back to form, another number-one on the staff does not hurt.

G. Meche a couple years ago had the best stuff in the entire Seattle system. He is one season away from surgery and is still maturing. He had 15 wins last year.

Ryan Franklin has improved his numbers every season so far. He won 11 games last year.

Guardado is rated one of the top 7 closers in baseball.

Hasegawa has become the everyman pitcher on the team, including the back up closer role.

J. Mateo is one of the two young stars-in-training. He could evolve into a closer or a solid starter, what do you do with a pitcher nobody can hit? He does not walk many either. In 50 appearances he produced a WHIP of .096 last year.

R. Soriano has a nagging injury that could affect the entire season. He is the other young-star-in-training. When healthy he is another pitcher nobody has been able to hit. In 40 appearances last year he finished with a WHIP of .079.

Mariner Hitting
J. Olerud serves the team in two important ways; he saves 25 errors each season for the infielders and will have 80 R.B.I.s.

B. Boone is almost a Hall of Fame candidate and if he continues he could do it.

Edgar Martinez is still bashing and knocking in his Mariner teammates.

S. Spiezio was the big off-season acquisition. He is much more of a hitter than a fielder, a throwback player who has a dirty uniform every game. Injured at present.

R. Winn has scored 190 runs and driven in 150 R.B.I.s his two years in Seattle.

I. Suzuki has had 200 or more hits every year in the States. He will not do that every year; he will do it again this season.

R. Ibanez is a .290 hitter and will collect 100+ R.B.I.s.

R. Aurilia is going to line-drive hitters paradise – Safeco Field. He may collect close to 100 R.B.I.s.

Ranger Hitters
Kevin Mench is known everywhere as a guy with 30 homer-potential and a good attitude. It’s the good attitude that the intense no-nonsense manager Showalter hates; he expresses it by not playing Mench. Playing in Texas, he will be an instant star and he hustles to enrich the fans.
David Dellucci creates fans and plays too hard, he gets injured-by-effort. A healthy Dellucci generates a couple-dozen stolen bases and scores runs seemingly everyday.
Brian Jordan is a fastball hitter deluxe and any inside pitch may be a home run in the Texas air. He could hit 25 home runs this year.
Lance Nix playing everyday is a potential 30-30 player.
Hank Blalock … what if he duplicates last year?
Mark Teixeira is one of the very-best future home run champions in Baseball.
Michael Young played in 160 games and came to the plate 666 times. He also hit .306 including 72 R.B.I.s and 106 runs scored. Enuff said?
Alfonso Soriano in Texas sounds like a big year for Alfonso. What would a big year include? Last year he hit 38 homers and stole 36 bases. His numbers were outstanding and the year before he was better.

Hideo Nomo doesn’t miss his turn and never gives up more hits than innings pitched. A winning Dodger season requires at least 18 wins from him and he is capable.

Odalis Perez weighs just 150 pounds. In his two seasons as a Dodger he has won 27 games and proven he can go 200 innings. He can win 15-18 games this year.

Jeff Weaver before he joined the Yankees was a proven winner, solid number one for a soft team. So he couldn’t deal with the Bronx, others have had the same problem and gone on with their lives. He will too. This man will become numero-uno of the staff and good for 17-20 wins and 200 innings.

Kazuhisa Ishii will win many games pitching at number four in a rotation. He should rarely face a number one or two so he should out-pitch many of his adversaries.

Tom Martin pitched in 80 games last season, his hits per nine-innings was a low 6.4. His ratio was 1.18. If you know him I am impressed.

Paul Shuey has been as solid as a rock ever since 1998. His seasons are always good. He was just injured and will be out 5-6 weeks.

Guillermo Mota is the “Ace” of the bullpen. Granted last season was a first for him, but if you saw him pitch it was very apparent he is a future star. Mota pitched over 100 innings in relief, averaging 2 walks per nine innings and a 0.99 Ratio.

Eric Gagne is the best closer in all Baseball.

Los Angeles Hitting
Shawn Green is told last season was a bad year. In this bad year he hit .280, 19 home runs, 85 R.B.I.s, OBP .355. In his previous two seasons he bashed 40+ homers in both.

Dave Roberts when healthy can be one of baseball’s best leadoff hitters.

Juan Encarnacion will steal 20-25 bases, drive in 90 runners, score 95 runs and hit around .275 this year if he can reach 500 ABs.

Adrian Beltre is only 25 years old and has knocked out more than 20 homers the last two seasons - he should drive-in 90 R.B.I.s this season. The batting-average will rise as his fielding goes further south.

Jayson Werth is a large man built just for Dodger Stadium. Although he takes-up extra space he is a natural line drive, gap hitter and a smart base runner. His rookie year will be around 10 homers, 55 R.B.I.s, 75 runs and a .265 BA.

Paul Lo Duca has been the number two hitter in the batting order because he gets contact. Expect him to be moved down further in the batting order and expect many more homers.

R. Ventura is now strictly a power hitter and should drive 20 over the fences and knock-in about 85 Runs and he will always look to take the extra base.

Cody Ross was just acquired and he is another line drive hitter built for Dodger wants. He was sent down but will be back soon because he is a natural hitter with a great deal of power.

Jason Grabowski is another line drive hitting solid fielding outfielder.

David Wells is likely to be the winner of 12-15 games.

Brian Lawrence is the “bulldog” pitcher who won games when the team could not win many. With these hitters he could win 15-20 games.

J. Peavy will become an “All-Star” this season and will win 20 or more games.

Adam Eaton is worth your prayers. If he is healthy, count on 12-15 games.

Trever Hoffman was once an “All-Star” and surely was one of the top 5 closers in all baseball. He was real smart before and nobody could hit him. Now he will no-longer strikeout everyone and instead will pitch more effectively using some new off-speed pitches.

Padre Hitting
Brian Giles is one season removed from no less than 35 home runs and averaged 37 home runs for 4 consecutive seasons. The past 2 seasons he hit in the .290s. He walks twice as much as he strikes out. A real big gun.

J. Payton is a lifetime .291 hitter that spent 2 seasons in Colorado. Who is Payton? He is a matured, sweet swinging, confident, hard .290 hitter, which means 25 homers and 90 R.B.I.s.

R. Klesko will not bash 35 homeruns this year; he has never actually hit 35 home runs. He is a known power supply for leftfield or first base. We should see about 20 homers and 70 runners knocked in.

Phil Nevin is the purest riddle known to baseball. Expect nothing and see what we get. He could hit a dozen homeruns or he can slug 45, he can send 45 base runners across the plate or 125.

M. Loretta has evolved into a.300 hitter and improves each year. He made himself a better player and expects it to continue. Walks as much as he strikes out and is the guy the big fella’s knock in.

S. Burroughs has shown to be a .290 hitter and the team sees him at about .320. He hit only 7 home runs and I expect to see about 15.

R. Hernandez became a hitting catcher last year with power to match. He was important enough to the Padres to trade Kotsay for him.

Jeff Cirillo is injured again. He is out about 5 weeks. When he is back so will be his batting stroke. He is a lifetime .299 hitter that never hit less than .313 but once in the NL. He is back in the NL.

Buchanan is just now beginning his career as a power-hitting back-up player.

T. Long is a just better then average outfielder with double-digit power each season.

Florida Marlins Pitching
J. Beckett keeps a low Ratio/WHIP because he has never given up more hits than innings pitched. An important point to keep in mind, this season and every season all my pitchers fit that profile. He is the staff’s number-one on a team rich with young pitchers.

B. Penny won fourteen games last year and it was his first season with figures as such. This year expect twenty wins as he fulfills the Marlin confidence.

D. Willis is coming into his sophomore year. Will he or won’t he? I say 20 games and the MVP title.

C. Pavano could be an “Ace” on most any other team. Last season he hit the 200 innings mark. Having Beckett, Penny and Pavano all hit 20 wins this season is a good bet.

D. Oliver All of the pitchers mentioned above will cover Oliver’s season. It seems as if Oliver has been around forever and most every season he is bad.

M. Perisho is a left-handed pitcher, a fine example of a bad pitcher making a different roster often, all because he throws from the left side.

J. Wayne has done nothing so far to prove he belongs in the majors. The starters better plan on going deep in every game.

C. Fox has struck out 233 batters in 206 innings, giving up 176 hits with an E.R.A. of 3.28 and those are his career numbers. He breaks-down each year either often or for long stretches at a time. When healthy he is pretty good.

A. Benitez has everything needed to be quality for Florida. Benitez is a quality closer. Finishing the season with 21 saves, 73 innings, an E.R.A. of 2.86 and he gave up only 6 home runs.

Florida Marlins Hitting
J. Pierre may be the best leadoff hitter in all baseball. Expect 50-70 stolen bases and 10 homers.

J. Conine always starts slow and heats like the weather. When it is time for a hot bat after the All-Star game, here he is.

M. Cabrera has 6 home runs in his first 14 at bats this year. Enough said.

H.S. Choi keeps an all or nothing approach and it got him to the majors. Look up the words pull-hitter and see a photo of Choi. Now he is learning about the rest of the ballpark to hit in. Awesome power.

L. Castilla will need to hit a ton if he is planning on reducing his stolen bases. He has never been known as a good glove but, could be a good number two hitter, he will get contact.

A. Gonzalez hits his best before the All-Star break, then it drops some, but he will hit in the clutch all year. His defense would keep him in the line-up regardless. He has lost a step in the field.

M. Lowell has become the team’s leader and his consistency means solid numbers for us Fantasy players.

R. Castro is known for his defense but he has good power and will hit in double-digits this year in homeruns.

Baltimore Orioles Pitching
K. Ainsworth will get hit often until he begins to pitch. With his stuff and his locationing it could happen sooner than later. Ainsworth requires a good game-calling catcher, which is not on this team; he will toil until then.

E. DoBose showed last year he has more talent then even Baltimore expected. From day one he has been a solid performer giving-up less hits than innings pitched and a low ratio, don’t expect many strikeouts.

M. Riley was once the “prime beef” of the Baltimore future. Then he had serious surgery on his shoulder. He seems to be back. The lack of control is not balanced by the hitter’s inability to hit him and until then his ratio will be high.

S. Ponson is the staff “Ace” because of last season or by time-of-service, either way he will win games by scores of 10-6 or 8-7, etc. and he should collect 18 of them.

R. Lopez is a good young starting pitcher currently being ruined by the Orioles. For a team weak in starting pitchers he is doomed – punished – by being placed in the bullpen.

R. Bauer is a better-than-average reliever, used in long relief.

B.J. Ryan is the in-house strikeout pitcher. Brought in to face a key hitter in a key situation where a strikeout is needed.

J. Julio is the closer. Last year he gathered 36 saves while he maintained a high E.R.A. and a large ratio. He requires a manager that smokes and has patience.

Baltimore Orioles Hitting
J. Lopez is not expected to hit 43 homers again but 30-35 is reachable. He will need some adjustment time to discover the difference between the pitching in the AL from the NL.

J. Gibbons arguably now, because of the acquisition of Tejada, is the best player on the team and the locker room leader. He bats fourth.

M. Tejada wants to be playing every game, every moment in the field and every at-bat. Tejada was a great hitter in a larger park then the one he is now playing in and he has protection in the batting order, which he has not had since Giambi left the A’s. Look for a big season.

M. Mora will play third this year and hit 20 homers. Will he match the .317 batting average of last year is doubtful, but the runs should be larger.

L. Bigbie is the big left-handed bat entering the regular line-up; he hit .303 last year.

B. Roberts is just 27 years old, bet he grows into a 12-15-homer guy and steals 40 bases.

R. Palmeiro will once more hit 35+ homeruns and move 125 of his teammates across home plate. I doubt he will hit .290 again so a BA of .270 is do-able.

L. Matos is not likely to hit .300 this year, he will hit 20 homeruns and make the same number of fielding errors.

D. Segui may be in the top ten best “natural” hitters in the game. Segui is in the top five in “missed games because of injuries” in all baseball.

J. Hairston, Jr. is injured at present. As soon as his bat became dangerous he became brittle. Where he plays upon his return is a question. Will he or Roberts be traded?

AL East

Baltimore: Matt Riley was a first-round draft choice and was doing very good until he required Tommy John surgery (2001). Now he is healthy and is showing many signs of the stardom to come. Eric DuBose and Erik Bedard are two other star quality youngsters pitching in the Baltimore rotation or spot-starting for the moment.

Boston: Bronson Arroyo tossed a perfect game for Pawtucket on August 10, 2003 where he posted a 3.46 ERA with 155 strikeouts in 149 2 innings. On the first day in May 2004 he went 6 innings against the hard-hitting Texas Rangers allowing them only 3 hits, either showcasing him to teams wanting a starting pitcher or to remind themselves in Boston what they have in Bronson Arroyo.

NYY Bubba Crosby is a smallish baseball player at just 185 pounds and 5’10”, but the hustle and winner’s attitude is why he is here. He has not shown a whole lot of anything until the first of this season when he pinch-hit a home run. The first 4 hits brought 2 homers. Yankee outfielders are fragile and he will get to play until “The Boss” brings in a big-time outfielder.

Tampa Bay Doug Waechter is among many young players in Tampa Bay, all look bizarre around the manager, Lou Pineilla. A rookie did not have a prayer for playing time in the managers past. Doug is a young “Ace” pitcher 3 years away. Last season, his first, he finished 3-2, E.R.A. 3.31, 36 innings and just 29 hits. This year he could be a .500 pitcher. A “keeper” in Keeper Leagues.

Toronto Orlando Hudson upon arriving to the “big time” in 2002 found that a half-season of hitting .276 and then a full season at second base pushing 57 runners across home plate and scoring 54 himself all on 127 hits. He is near the top of the list of best with the glove in his position. He is above average in his understanding of baseball and will be a field general sometime. This year he should hit 15 home runs or more.

AL Central

CWS Miguel Olivo is one of those all-muscle steel framed catchers, but he can run and will run. Expect about 10 steals this year and maybe 20 next year. Soon he will be an All-Star and a future leader for the White Sox. This year could mean 12-17 homers and 70 R.B.I.s.

Cleveland Cliff Lee is a secret. Outside of Indian Territory and each hitter who faces him – they know Cliff Lee. Check it out! Last year he quietly put together a 3-3 season, giving-up only 41 hits in 53 innings. That is so important to watch in Fantasy. A real good guide to use, less hits than innings pitched means allot to the other numbers we see as important. By the way, he struck out 44 batters and walked only 20. This year is a stepping-stone towards the 20 win seasons he will reach in the coming year or so.

Detroit Mike Maroth ended up with the dubious peculiarity of becoming the first major league pitcher since 1980 to lose 20 games in a single season. Maroth started off 2004 in fine fashion. He allowed just one run in 7 1/3 innings of work for win one. He later recorded seven strikeouts and walked just one improving his record to 2-0 and lowering his ERA to 3.37 still in Detroit. He believably may win 12-15 games with the Tigers and that is saying something.

KC Ken Harvey is still a growing young man, when he learns to take a few pitches – because it is coming near you does not mean try and hit it – he will hit .300. Don’t expect 25 homers this season and maybe not next season either. Both seasons he could provide plenty of R.B.I.s anyway, like 80 or so.

Minnesota Lew Ford is no surprise to the Twins at all. They knew he would hit and cover plenty of ground in the outfield. The problem is the team owns too many starting outfielders and the weakest-link in the field, Shannon Stewart, does not desire being the DH on a regular basis. Ford would be such a waste of glove-talent as a DH hence he plays everyday in the minors. It would not surprise me if Ford steals as many bases as Stewart does and hit 25 homers.

AL West

Anaheim Kevin Gregg was considered a “Can’t Miss” prospect before he arrived this year. He seems to quickly spot the ‘hole’ in the hitters swing or a leg shift on an inside curve ball. He is not the fastest gun around, hitting the radar-gun around 91-93 MPH, he does own some various-speed other pitches for confusions sake. The key is he can put the baseball where the catcher wants it every time .. or so it seems.

Seattle Raphael Soriano has a forearm injury since spring and those type injuries can last the entire season. I did not draft him. Too bad because this year was a golden opportunity for him – management wanted him to pitch more this year. He is the West Coast version of Johann Santana (Twins).

Oakland Rich Harden was the main reason Oakland got rid of young good pitchers like Lidle, Lilly and Harang expecting to reap some Harden rewards. That was last year. He is now a ‘veteran’ and therefore we could see a dozen wins, or maybe 15 wins, or… dare I say ……. He is the real deal, the pitcher the A’s wanted, but maybe he would be better elsewhere?

Texas Gerald Laird certainly looks like a catcher and has the catcher’s walk. Can his ‘talk’ give the pitchers confidence in him. The catcher is a very tough position to play. His bat is seemingly very good right now; well worthy of getting Einar Diaz gone. By the seasons end there will be two young catching studs everyone will be talking about. One is Victor Martinez in Cleveland and Gerald Laird is the other.